Statistics and Fish
This morning, numbers came out from Italy and China. Surprisingly, they were very similar. Mortality rates are low until the 60's at which point they climb precipitously, upwards of 20%+.
However, a bit of caution must be maintained when we look at these numbers. First, Italy was barely hanging on economically and was expected to be one of the falling dominoes of the EU. Their health care, socialized, of course, was pretty much being held together with bubblegum and hope. China, manufacturer to the world, has never realized population-wide health care which came anywhere near to Western standards.
China is a closed country and while we can only guess how they have treated their corona virus patients, we know life is cheap within those borders and we have no reason to believe that an overstressed system was when those standards would change.
Multiple reports have come out of Italy that the dramatic lack of ventilators meant anyone over 60 was literally not given access to a machine.
We know that obsessive sanitation, clean water, access to anti-virals (possibly including anti-malarials and HIV drugs), and a much larger vents per population mean higher survival rates. All of those are hallmarks of the American health system. Enjoy it while we have it. Once it's free, it's Italy for us.
How much will the mortality rate change? No one knows, just as no one truly knows the mortality rates involved because no one knows how many positive cases there are - from non-symptomatic to critical. If you don't know your denominator, you can't figure out the averages.
Sanity may be sinking in as more scientists and doctors admit we just don't have enough data to justify the damage we are doing to our economy. And, if those who say this virus is so slow burning that a quarantine would need to last 18 months are correct, just toss in the towel now and take the lumps, unless we want to force the dystopian socialist future half of this country seems to be in such a rush to adopt. Feel the Bern.
Meanwhile, a few states have it in their head that fishing can actually be free (you know, like it was all the way up until the 20th century). They couch it as promoting a relaxing, outdoor activity in troubled times, but I think there's a bit of hope for Bocephous in there. If the fishing is free, the poaching might not be as bad this year.
However, a bit of caution must be maintained when we look at these numbers. First, Italy was barely hanging on economically and was expected to be one of the falling dominoes of the EU. Their health care, socialized, of course, was pretty much being held together with bubblegum and hope. China, manufacturer to the world, has never realized population-wide health care which came anywhere near to Western standards.
China is a closed country and while we can only guess how they have treated their corona virus patients, we know life is cheap within those borders and we have no reason to believe that an overstressed system was when those standards would change.
Multiple reports have come out of Italy that the dramatic lack of ventilators meant anyone over 60 was literally not given access to a machine.
We know that obsessive sanitation, clean water, access to anti-virals (possibly including anti-malarials and HIV drugs), and a much larger vents per population mean higher survival rates. All of those are hallmarks of the American health system. Enjoy it while we have it. Once it's free, it's Italy for us.
How much will the mortality rate change? No one knows, just as no one truly knows the mortality rates involved because no one knows how many positive cases there are - from non-symptomatic to critical. If you don't know your denominator, you can't figure out the averages.
Sanity may be sinking in as more scientists and doctors admit we just don't have enough data to justify the damage we are doing to our economy. And, if those who say this virus is so slow burning that a quarantine would need to last 18 months are correct, just toss in the towel now and take the lumps, unless we want to force the dystopian socialist future half of this country seems to be in such a rush to adopt. Feel the Bern.
Meanwhile, a few states have it in their head that fishing can actually be free (you know, like it was all the way up until the 20th century). They couch it as promoting a relaxing, outdoor activity in troubled times, but I think there's a bit of hope for Bocephous in there. If the fishing is free, the poaching might not be as bad this year.
